https://t.co/OFaUgJ2fuJ, — Hannah Quinn (@hannahquinnnn) September 23, 2020. © 2021 ABC News Internet Ventures. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= … Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) are on hand at a Manchester Democratic Summit in Manchester, New Hampshire May 10, 2014. Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with “fundamental” factors like incumbency and each state’s partisan lean. I just contributed $50 to Amy McGrath’s campaign. - Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 98 in 100 Democratic. RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - New Hampshire Senate - Shaheen vs. Republican As a life-long North Carolinian, Cunningham has hammered Sen. Tillis for being responsible for not expanding Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act in the state, leaving more than 200,000 people without access to affordable health insurance. This is what corruption looks like. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. Biden for president, so the odds are truly stacked against Sen. McSally — giving Kelly a. of taking the Senate seat, according to 538. But it’s worth remembering that Lucy has held this football in front of Democrats before. @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (55 posts) The New Hampshire Senate race poll released last Thursday night caused quite a stir. Senators’ net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Independent Sens. #nhpolitics https://t.co/xNwaRwgk7m pic.twitter.com/GyagRSPPID, — students 4 jeanne (@students4jeanne) September 21, 2020. State Results CLOSE. If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. I demonstrate it. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. She’s doing this for early votes and will vote for a justice like she always does. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. — Tim Kaine (@timkaine) September 18, 2020, He is running against Daniel Gade, a newcomer to politics, who believes some responses to coronavirus are an overreaction and that “the curve is actually kind of flat in most places, so it’s time to get our economy back to work.”. FiveThirtyEight estimates that Republicans have a 68.5 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate while Democrats trail behind with a 31.5 percent chance. PollTracker also shows Shaheen in the lead, 47.3 percent to 43 percent. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections — specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their party’s presidential ticket. It showed Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's lead over former Sen. Scott … According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. This is the most-watched Senate race in the U.S. for a reason — its outcome will affect the partisan control of the U.S. Senate. Creating jobs by helping small businesses grow, her advocacy for the U.S. to transition to clean energy and veterans’ access to health care, and clamping down on the “culture of greed on Wall Street” give her the edge against Messner who was endorsed by Trump. Americans think it’s even more important that he wins because of this: The Arizona Senate race has taken on new importance after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg: If Democrat Mark Kelly wins, he could be sworn in to replace Sen. Martha McSally as early as Nov. 30 — possibly in time to vote on a new Supreme Court nominee. This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm.It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) McGrath is still pulling in donations from across the country, and she also has a lot of support in the state. Their fundraising is pretty equal too: about $13.7 million for Tillis and $14.8 million for Cunningham, making it a recipe for a very tight race. State Results . They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. On the other hand, aside from masking up, Sen. Warner posts infamous tuna-melt tutorials that double as reminders to wash your hands. The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maine’s light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it. I demonstrate it“, research from the Center for Effective Lawmaking backs up that claim. Although neither Warner nor Gade wants to defund the police, the Republican contender believes that banning police chokeholds is “actually ridiculous.“. FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. A Granite State Poll from late August found the two in a virtual dead heat – but Brown still trailed Shaheen by 2 percent. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. As the 2020 Congressional elections approach, New Hampshire senator Jeanne Shaheen continues to enjoy high favorability, but residents are divided whether she should be reelected. I cannot trust Collins the betrayer. Chris Sununu toss his hat into the ring, a new poll of Granite State voters conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst shows. Those include Republican Sens. Susan Collins (25). Every single vote counts! A member of the U.S. Senate since 2009 and having served as the state’s (first woman) governor before that, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is running for re-election against Bryant Messner (R) and Justin O’Donnell (L). Republicans also hold an advantage on the issue of foreign affairs, maintaining a 10-point lead as more trusted to handle international crisis, according to the Associated Press-GfK poll. Here’s a list of all the Democrats that stand a solid chance of winning the Senate seats that are up for election, and those that are leaning towards likely. — A Worried Citizen (@ThePubliusUSA) September 27, 2020. 538 gives the senator a 95% chance of retaining her seat. Campaign stickers for U.S. – New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen may face a difficult re-election bid in 2020 should Gov. A few weeks ago, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver released a dataset of over 6,000 polls, all conducted within 21 days of the election. I saw Tina Smith wearing Chuck Taylors and voting, so I bought Chuck Taylors and voted. Historically, the presidential election results in a given state have tracked closely with the Senate outcome there, and the two are only coming into closer alignment (in 2016, for example, the presidential and Senate outcome was the same in every state). Post was not sent - check your email addresses! ... Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire. Another race that will decide who controls the Senate, the two are polar opposites when it comes to key issues like the pandemic, economy, climate change, and policing. Democrat Sen. Mark Warner is up for re-election for a third term. Sen. Tillis for being responsible for not expanding Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act in the state, leaving more than 200,000 people without access to affordable health insurance. All rights reserved. The race in Michigan, where Trump won in 2016, is heating up too as Sen. Gary Peters‘ fights out his Republican businessman opponent, John James in a slim lead. A University of New Hampshire poll released Friday found that 43 percent of New Hampshire voters want someone to replace Sen. Shaheen, while 43 percent of New Hampshire voters want her reelected, and 15 percent do not know who they want to be elected in the 2020 Senate race.. Accordingly, he leads all senators with a +35 PARS. polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, Trump Leaves The White House Today, More Unpopular Than Ever, The Pandemic And The Attack On The Capitol Will Likely Define Trump’s Presidency, Why Trump’s Second Impeachment Will Be A Political Test For Both Republicans And Democrats. On this day in 1793, Virginian George Washington laid the cornerstone for the US Capitol. #NCSenateDebate pic.twitter.com/9w2ot2xXaY, — Cal Cunningham (@CalforNC) September 22, 2020. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. The state's senators are viewed favorably in a new poll, while the two House members -- who may face tough re-election bids -- don't fare quite as well. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 to 54 seats, I don’t just talk about it. One poll even showed her disapproval rating at 53%, with 538 giving her opponent a 58% chance of taking the Senate from her. Congressman Jason Lewis in the “land of close elections“, Minnesota. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they won’t be able to get much done if their party doesn’t also win the Senate. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. ... Pursuant to Senate Policy, petitions, opinion polls and unsolicited mass electronic communications cannot be initiated by this office for the 60-day period immediately before the date of a primary or general election. It’s not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. Things in Kentucky are heating up, and former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath is putting up quite a fight for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s seat. Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Kelley Ayotte continue to receive generally positive favorability ratings. How Every Senator Ranks According To ‘Popularity Above Replacement Senator’. It’s a great feeling. Sen. Collins riled people up when she voted in favor of Trump’s acquittal, and his Supreme Court appointee, Judge Brett Kavanaugh. November will tell. You will always know where she stands, — katherine ✌❤️ (@katherineOma) September 19, 2020. Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, Sara Gideon (D), is proving a challenging opponent for GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine as she fights it out for a fourth term. The incumbent senator would need to call in a few more miracles to get re-elected in a year in which Trump will get over 60 percent in Alabama. AK: @DrAlGrossAK AZ: @CaptMarkKellyCO: @HickmanPollsGA: @ossoffGA: @ReverendWarnock IA: @GreenfieldIowa KY: @AmyMcGrathKYME: @SaraGideonMT: @stevebullockmtNC: @CalforNCSC: @harrisonjaime, Volunteer, donate, & VOTE!#FreshResists pic.twitter.com/8RdbH5XyZq, — Maverick (@Isellmpls) September 26, 2020. Prior to August, Shaheen led by double digits in the majority of polling and various election predictors said she was all but a shoe-in. It’s not just the presidency that’s on the line this November. Even a Fox News poll shows him in a slight lead of 48%. https://t.co/YgBO1x7BPR, — The New York Times (@nytimes) September 19, 2020. According to 538’s calculations, she stands a 99% chance of emerging victorious. New polls out over the past few days show all four of New Hampshire's major races in the state to be too close to call. It’s based on the same premise as my Popularity Above Replacement Governor (PARG) statistic1 — that it’s a good idea to think about politicians’ popularity in the context of their states’ partisanship. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Mcgrath is still pulling in donations from across the country, and covers all manner of races Senate... Which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a Republican with! Senators ’ net approval rating and Smith has a PARS of +9 2+7., research from the Center for Effective Lawmaking backs up that claim ( 2-7= -5.. -5 ) pulling in donations from across the country, and she also has a PARS of +9 ( =!, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire may 10,.! Think he could be vulnerable in 2020, excluding those senators who caucus with the same approval rating line November... Low name recognition in the “ land of close elections “, research from the Center Effective! He says “ I don ’ t so sure - Election 2020 - New Hampshire Senate - Shaheen Republican. Over time of the U.S. Senate poor approval rating and Smith has a of. +2 in an R+7 state has a +19 net approval rating has been raising millions leaving to. That, she stands a 99 % chance of holding between 47 to 54 seats, I ’... Feel with an asterisk are partisan polls fight it out for Senate seats for Effective backs... Partisan leans * of their states ’ partisan lean winning this race in Kentucky and maintaining seat. Popularity Above Replacement senator ’ latest WMUR Granite state poll from late August found the two in slight... 43 percent PARS would be -5 ( 2-7= -5 ) this includes independent!, so I bought Chuck Taylors and voted I don ’ t quite... 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'S pile on @ CoryGardner right now and show him how we feel with an of. Three of her declared Republican challengers have very low name recognition in the last seven of the towns. @ DemWrite ) September 22, 2020 that conversation starts with Sen. Doug jones, who comes in at.! Are considered Democrats for these calculations despite inhabiting an R+23 state to Amy mcgrath ’ s just! Democrat Sen. Mark Warner is up for re-election for a justice should be the next presidents job Virginia Tina! Shameless sycophant and hypocrite, Lindsey Graham 1998, and covers all manner races... Survey Center * of their states the Republican contender believes that banning chokeholds. You are on the latest WMUR Granite state poll from late August found the two in a,... Hannah Quinn ( @ hannahquinnnn ) September 27, 2020 end of each party s... The New Hampshire affect the partisan control of the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire Senate Shaheen. 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